Is Tadej Pogačar, arguably the dominant force in professional cycling, finally vulnerable? For years, the Slovenian superstar has seemed untouchable, consistently racking up victories across the globe. But here's where it gets controversial: could another rider have figured out how to consistently challenge – and even defeat – the seemingly invincible Pogačar? According to former professional cyclist Tom Danielson, the answer is a resounding yes, and the key lies with Mathieu van der Poel.
Let's be clear: Pogačar's ability to control races is remarkable. He frequently launches solo attacks, accelerating away from the peloton and then, crucially, staying away. Think back to the Tour of Flanders, where he faced relentless pursuit from Wout van Aert, Mads Pedersen, and Van der Poel. Despite the pressure, the gap didn't close, and Pogačar secured the win. But how did he manage it?
Danielson, sharing his insights on X (formerly Twitter), explains that Pogačar’s success hinges on strategically timing his attacks. “It is because he plans his moments to attack at the highest crunch point in the race,” he states. “This is why you are seeing such long solos – he chooses the most brutally difficult sections of the course, followed by relentless, challenging terrain. It’s a ‘checkmate’ situation; the remaining riders are scattered and pushing themselves to their absolute limits.”
But this is the part most people miss: Danielson emphasizes that sheer numbers don't matter in these scenarios. “While they regroup, he’s already established his gap, and the subsequent terrain drains those on his wheel just as much as those desperately trying to chase him down. So, numbers become irrelevant.” This highlights a fascinating strategic nuance – Pogačar isn't just strong; he's incredibly clever about when and where he exerts his energy.
Danielson’s analysis extends to Pogačar’s race selection. He suggests the Slovenian is increasingly selective, only competing in events where he can implement this specific, grueling strategy. “At this point, he doesn’t really even start races that he can’t create this type of strategy to win,” Danielson observes. Quebec City is cited as a rare exception, and Milan-San Remo, while challenging, is a race he’s actively working to conquer.
Now, here's the bombshell: Van der Poel, according to Danielson, has cracked the code. Examining Pogačar’s defeats – notably at Paris-Roubaix and Milan-San Remo – reveals a pattern: Van der Poel consistently outperforms him in those races. “MVDP has cracked the code to beat him,” Danielson asserts.
So, what is the code? Danielson breaks it down: “Choose a race that is 100% suited to your strengths and train specifically for the efforts you anticipate he’ll use to beat you.” He elaborates that Van der Poel’s ability to sustain incredibly long, high-intensity VO2 efforts, and then repeat them, proved crucial. “MVDP was also ready to go the distance.” This isn't just about raw power; it's about targeted preparation and exploiting Pogačar’s tactical vulnerabilities.
Looking ahead to the 2026 cycling season, Danielson predicts a significant shift in Pogačar’s approach. Having experimented with different tactics at Milan-San Remo without success, he anticipates a revamped strategy for the Classics. “For that reason, Tadej will definitely come to Sanremo, Flanders, and Roubaix with some new moves in 2026.”
This revelation raises a compelling question: Can Van der Poel truly establish himself as Pogačar’s consistent rival, or will the Slovenian adapt and reclaim his dominance? Do you agree with Danielson’s assessment that Van der Poel has unlocked Pogačar’s secrets? Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments below – we’d love to hear your perspective on this evolving rivalry!
